Marketers Are BURNED OUT - And No One Gives AF
I have read countless posts about bloated marketing roles where six jobs are crammed into one title. One listing asked for a “Marketing Manager” to handle brand strategy, paid media, SEO, email marketing, copywriting, and front-end web design. All of that... on a junior salary! These are not rare. They are the norm these days. Scroll LinkedIn or Reddit for five minutes and you will see post after post of people venting about being stretched thin, underpaid, and told to be “grateful for the opportunity.”
I have been reading these for a YEAR now. Watching the same story play out. Marketers are asking, “Is it just me, or has marketing completely lost the plot? Is this the job I wanted? Should I just switch careers?” I even asked the same things myself. I used to love marketing. Now, I don't even know what to say.
What even was marketing before all of this? Was it always like this and we are just noticing it now? Or did it get worse in the last few years?
What used to be a blend of strategy and execution turned into survival mode. AI promised efficiency. Instead, it created more expectation. Faster turnarounds. More output. Tighter budgets. Leadership sees AI as a shortcut, not a tool. So the workload? It went up. Headcount? Went down. Pressure? TRIPLED.
The marketer role did not evolve. It got gutted and repackaged.
This article is not about the trends. Not the hype. Just focusing on the one question we all dread to be answered. How real is marketer burnout, and how did we get here?
What happens when your creative energy gets consumed by meetings, client briefs, and endless edits? How do you stay motivated when everyone blames your team for poor performance but no one credits you when a campaign wins? Why do marketers, especially in digital, feel like they are always running on empty?
The Modern Marketing Role is a Trap!
Burnout in marketing is not new. What’s different now is how fast it spreads and how deeply it affects people across roles. From content specialists and media buyers to strategists and SEO managers, burnout is everywhere. Not because people are lazy or bad at their jobs. They are overwhelmed, underappreciated, and stuck in systems that demand more while offering less.
Marketers today wear too many hats. Generalist roles stretch across brand, analytics, operations, and sales support. It used to be enough to run great creative. Now you are expected to prove ROI, optimize in real-time, adjust to AI tools, and still produce on-brand messaging across ten platforms. The second something underperforms, marketing takes the fall.
But when results are good? Sales or other department will take the credit. That’s not an exaggeration. One Reddit comment I saw earlier hit it perfectly: “The sales team shouldn't be the only ones getting commission since we (content team) did all the work.” That’s the norm in many agencies and in-house teams.
Marketers drive interest, create value, and nurture leads. Sales closes once the hard part is already done.
There’s a word for that dynamic: exhausting.
The Workload Keeps Growing
Burnout is tied to more than just being busy. It’s the layoffs. The increased cost of living. The consolidation of roles. Managers freeze raises. Employees fear losing their jobs, so they overperform to avoid the next round of cuts. That creates a cycle. You take on more. You work harder. You don’t complain. And then your reward is more responsibility, not more support. Not a better salary.
You become your own bottleneck. You say yes to everything because the team is small and leadership needs “just one more push.” Eventually, you hit a wall. Creativity dies. Enthusiasm fades. Work turns into survival.
No Respect, No Boundaries
Marketing roles are highly visible but rarely respected. Everyone thinks they can do your job. Leadership gives vague direction but expects strong positioning. Product teams shift priorities mid-sprint. Sales wants new decks with impossible turnaround times. People expect you to spin gold out of nonsense with a smile on your face.
Meanwhile, your inbox fills up with subject lines like “quick tweak,” “minor edit,” and “urgent request.” These aren’t minor. They’re entire projects disguised as favors. And they never stop.
This is why boundaries matter. The problem is, setting boundaries gets seen as being “difficult” or “not a team player.” So people stop trying. They take the hits in silence.
Marketing Is Sales (But Without the Commission)
A common theme in marketing burnout is the rejection of sales culture. Some marketers say, “I don’t want to do sales. I’m an introvert.” That mindset makes you easy to ignore in corporate environments. One Reddit commenter put it plainly. Marketing is sales. You sell ideas to bosses, value props to clients, and narratives to users. You’re not on the phone closing deals, but you are pitching all the time.
People who thrive in marketing know how to talk. They present data with confidence. They make their case without waiting for approval. They build allies. And yes, sometimes they party with clients to keep them loyal.
The problem is not that marketers don’t work hard. It’s that most of them don’t get taught how to sell themselves. That disconnect builds resentment over time.
What Can Actually Help?
Fixing burnout in marketing requires more than taking a week off or downloading a mindfulness app. Companies and leadership need structural change.
1. Credit needs to be shared. If a campaign brings in leads, content, media, and analytics should all get credit. This is not a favor. It’s the truth! Stop handing out bonuses to sales without acknowledging who did the heavy lifting.
2. Boundaries must be normalized. No one should work weekends to chase someone else’s last-minute idea. Make deadlines real. Protect personal time. Normalize saying no.
3. Redefine performance. Measuring success only through ROI creates a narrow path to burnout. Not every channel performs the same way. Not every campaign wins in thirty days. Look at long-term impact, brand growth, and engagement quality.
4. Advocate up the chain. Teach marketers how to pitch. Not just to customers. To leadership. Make the case for headcount, for tools, for strategy. If you don’t make noise, you won’t get noticed.
5. Say the quiet part out loud. Marketers need space to admit when they are tired. When they feel ignored. When they need clarity. Create a culture where people can be honest without fear.
Marketing Isn’t Dying. It’s Just Tired. Very Tired.
Burnout doesn’t mean you are in the wrong field. It means the structure around you is broken. You shouldn’t need to chase credit. You shouldn’t need to hide exhaustion. You
卡莱斯基理论解码：2027 全球经济与资产配置
（本文作者为 Barrons巴伦，钛媒体经授权发布）
很多人总觉得全球经济的暴涨暴跌、市场风险轮番爆发是 “突发黑天鹅”：美联储加息、地缘冲突、产能过剩、资产踩踏，看似毫无规律、随机发生。但在数理经济学的经典框架中，全球经济波动从来不是偶然，而是一套内生性、周期性、自我迭代的必然循环。
这一套看透资本主义经济周期本质的理论，就是波兰经济学家卡莱斯基提出的商业循环理论。卡莱斯基提出该模型后，依托大量实业与宏观案例完成了理论佐证，但模型稳定性边界、周期失控机理的核心难题，困扰全球数理经济学界整整半个世纪。1988年杨健教授完整攻克这一公开难题，厘清了卡莱斯基周期的稳定区间、波动阈值与风险失控临界点，为当代全球经济风险研判、金融市场风控提供了硬核数理支撑，完美适配当下复杂多变的全球市场环境。
本文结合卡莱斯基原生历史案例、近现代全球危机实证案例、杨健教授当年突破性研究，用通俗逻辑拆解卡莱斯基商业循环内核，复盘多轮周期运行规律，解读 2027 年宏观风险、市场波动的底层逻辑，同时梳理学界多元争议观点，兼顾科普性、案例实证、专业性与实战指导性。
一、打破认知：卡莱斯基周期，和传统经济周期完全不同
大众熟知的经济周期理论，大多聚焦 “供需交替、政策调控、外部冲击”，默认经济波动是外部因素导致的被动波动。但卡莱斯基的核心观点颠覆性极强：经济繁荣和衰退，都是市场经济内生自带的结果，没有外部冲击，经济依然会自动循环、涨跌交替。
其核心逻辑依托两大支柱，也是全球市场风险的根源，下面结合卡莱斯基亲身观察的经典案例逐一说明：
支柱 1：投资滞后效应（卡莱斯基原生华沙工业案例）
企业投资决策和产能落地存在天然时间差，这是周期波动的核心诱因。企业看好行情、加码投资时，资金立刻流入市场，拉动需求、推高经济、抬升资产价格；但厂房、设备与产能的建成需要漫长周期，产能投放明显滞后。
卡莱斯基一手观察案例：20 世纪 30 年代波兰华沙制造业繁荣周期，工业品需求走高、工厂利润暴涨，工厂主连夜扩建厂房、新增流水线，短期工业订单激增、工业股票持续上涨；但新建厂房、设备调试需要 2—3 年建设滞后期，等海量新产能全部投产，市场需求早已回落，商品严重滞销、工厂大面积减产裁员，经济自发由繁荣转入萧条，全程没有央行加息、战争等外部冲击，纯粹投资时滞催生周期起落。
支柱 2：利润分配驱动周期（1950 年代美国宏观实证案例）
卡莱斯基提出经典论断：工人花掉工资，资本家储蓄利润。利润越高、储蓄越多、消费越弱，社会有效需求持续收缩；利润收缩时，储蓄下降、消费回暖，供需再度平衡。收入分配的动态失衡，持续驱动经济周期波动。
卡莱斯基美国实证案例：1956—1961 年美国完整商业短周期，企业利润份额阶段性抬升、劳动者工资增速暂时落后于企业盈利；资本较多留存用于再投资，居民终端需求阶段性走弱、库存小幅积压，企业相应放缓资本开支，经济出现温和回落；后续企业盈利收缩、议价能力减弱，居民消费回暖，经济自动修复上行；这是稳态区间内分配小幅摆动驱动的温和短周期，完美验证分配动态驱动循环的核心逻辑。
在杨健教授的1988年研究之前，学界只能通过上述案例定性描述周期现象，始终无法精准界定：什么样的投资滞后、利润分配比例，会让经济温和周期波动？什么样的临界值，会引发周期失控、危机爆发？这也是传统经济学无法精准预判全球系统性风险的核心短板。而本文完整求解卡莱斯基模型稳定性区域，精准给出了周期平稳运行、风险累积、危机爆发对应的参数区间，补齐了这一百年理论的实战短板。
二、核心突破：破解五十年数理难题，锚定风险边界
卡莱斯基商业循环模型包含投资时滞、资本积累、收入分配三大动态变量，多变量耦合下的系统稳定性判定，是 20 世纪后半叶以来数理经济学界的经典公开难题。数十年间，全球学者仅能依靠历史案例做定性分析，无法定量界定风险边界，导致理论难以落地用于宏观风控与市场研判。
杨健教授在卡莱斯基模型的稳定性区域问题的核心突破有二，均可由历史危机案例验证：
1.界定周期稳态区间：精准测算出合理投资时滞、利润储蓄率、资本增速的匹配区间，在此区间内，经济呈现温和涨跌、有序轮动，市场风险可控。对应 1950—1960 年代美国平稳短周期，投资滞后期稳定在 1.8—2.2 年、劳动收入占比维持 53% 以上，仅出现温和小幅波动，无系统性危机。
2.锁定风险失控临界点：当投资滞后周期过长、资本扩张速度过快、利润分配失衡超标，卡莱斯基周期会突破稳态，进入非稳态分叉波动，表现为经济过热、资产泡沫、产能过剩、需求崩塌。1929 大萧条、2008 次贷危机均全部突破该组临界参数，最终引发全球性系统性风险；2022 年全球股灾则是在接近临界区间时，由美联储激进加息这一外生政策冲击直接触发的估值压缩。
简单来说：传统经济学理论只能事后用案例解释 “风险发生了”，而杨健教授的研究凭借数理阈值，可提前依据宏观数据预判 “风险何时会发生、为何会失控”，为 2026 年全球宏观风险研判提供了可量化理论工具。
三、用卡莱斯基循环 + 多轮历史案例，看懂 2026 全球经济风险全貌
结合稳定性阈值理论，叠加百年卡莱斯基周期历史案例对照，当下全球经济恰好处于投资滞后叠加分配失衡的非稳态区间，所有市场风险，都能对应卡莱斯基内生循环逻辑，对照历史案例可清晰推演当前的演化路径。
1. 投资滞后后遗症：全球产能错配（对标 20 世纪 70 年代全球化工产能泡沫案例）
2021—2023 年，在全球低利率与多国产业政策扶持下，各国企业集中加码新能源、高端制造、原材料产能，投资决策集中落地；经过卡莱斯基模型所说的 2—3 年标准投资滞后期，2026 年海量新增产能集中释放。
对标历史案例：1970 年代全球化工周期
1967—1970 年全球化工需求爆发，各国同步上马乙烯、化纤生产线，平均建设周期 2.7 年，突破杨健 2.5 年临界阈值；1973 年集中投产，化工品价格腰斩、行业大面积亏损，全球化工股持续下跌，这一路径与 2024—2026 年光伏、锂电行业的调整如出一辙。
按照卡莱斯基周期逻辑：前期投资拉动繁荣，当期产能落地压制价格，直接导致产能过剩、利润压缩、企业减产、投资收缩，属于内生周期波动。同时高端硬科技前期投资不足，形成结构性供需分化，加剧了市场板块的大幅波动。
2. 分配失衡循环：全球有效需求持续疲软（对标 1929 年大萧条前置分配特征）
契合卡莱斯基 “利润驱动周期” 核心逻辑，近年全球资本利润向头部企业、发达经济体集中，劳动者工资增速低迷。资本家高储蓄、低消费，工人工资性消费能力不足，全球整体有效需求持续收缩。
对标历史案例：1929 美国大萧条前置周期
1920 年代美国垄断工业企业利润持续暴涨，劳动收入占比逐年下滑至 51%（低于稳态 53% 阈值），资本大量投入股市而非消费品市场；居民收入增长停滞，汽车、家电耐用品需求提前见顶，企业库存高企，最终引发生产停滞、股市泡沫破裂。2026 年全球收入分配格局与 1920 年代高度相似，形成 “企业利润承压→裁员降薪→消费走弱→营收进一步下滑” 的负向循环，持续压制权益、大宗商品估值。
3. 政策干预扭曲：放大周期波动（对标 1990 年代日本地产周期案例）
卡莱斯基理论早已指出：市场经济内生循环，短期政策刺激只会延后风险、放大波动。结合杨健教授的非稳态研究，强干预会打破自然修复节奏，拉长投资滞后期，风险持续累积。
对标历史案例：日本 90 年代地产泡沫
80 年代日本央行持续宽松货币、地方政府大规模补贴基建，房企与制造业同步加码不动产投资，人为拉长了产能建设周期；本应在 1986 年自然出清的地产风险被托底延后，资产泡沫持续膨胀，1990 年泡沫一次性破裂，陷入长期通缩。
当下各国无序产业补贴、地方债务托底低效产能，仍在人为延后低效产能出清；而美联储超长高利率虽在加速资产估值与投机泡沫的出清，却又大幅抬升了新兴市场与高杠杆主体的债务偿付成本。托底与紧缩两股力量方向相反、同时作用，使 2026 年结构性风险更隐蔽、波动频率更高。
四、经典案例复盘：全覆盖卡莱斯基理论三大核心机制
本节分四大经典案例，集中复盘投资时滞与收入分配两大内生机制（政策扭曲的放大效应已在第三部分以日本地产周期为例说明），打通理论与现实：
案例 1：1929 年美国大萧条（分配失衡 + 投资双突破稳态阈值）
本轮周期完整印证了卡莱斯基逻辑：
1.分配端：1920 年代工业垄断企业利润份额持续走高，劳动收入占比跌至 51.2%，低于 53% 稳态线，居民消费能力持续萎缩；
2.投资端：汽车、基建企业连续 4 年高速扩产，厂房建设平均滞后期 2.8 年，突破临界值；
3.泡沫演化：前期投资推高工业、股市泡沫，后期产能集中释放、消费无力承接，企业盈利崩塌，股市崩盘、大规模失业。
这完全印证了卡莱斯基的判断：无需突发外部冲击，内生分配与投资失衡足以引爆全球性危机。
案例 2：2008 年全球次贷危机（金融放大版卡莱斯基周期，明斯基延伸佐证）
后凯恩斯学者明斯基深受卡莱斯基与凯恩斯理论影响，在相近框架下推演金融危机：
1.分配层面：美国制造业外迁，工薪阶层收入长期停滞，地产、金融企业利润大幅扩张；
2.投资时滞层面：地产开发周期 2.6 年，2003—2005 年全民举债建房，海量住房 2007 年集中交付；
3.风险引爆：居民收入既无法覆盖房贷，也无力承接海量住房供给，断供潮随即出现，地产、金融泡沫同步破裂。
本质仍是卡莱斯基内生周期，信贷宽松仅放大波动，根源是分配失衡与投资滞后错配。
案例 3：1973 年全球石油化工危机（纯投资时滞驱动周期）
分配端无显著突变，本轮周期以产业投资集中扩张为主导：全球各国同步建设炼化装置，建设周期普遍 2.7 年，突破杨健测算临界区间；1973 年前后产能集中释放，化工品价格大幅回落，化工企业连续数年盈利承压。同年爆发的石油危机属于叠加在周期之上的外生供给冲击，放大了价格与利润波动；剔除该外生扰动后，本案例仍展示了仅依靠投资滞后即可完成一轮完整繁荣—萧条循环。
案例 4：2024—2026 全球新能源调整（当代卡莱斯基周期标准样本）
前述产业数据与理论高度吻合：IEA 数据显示 2020—2023 全球清洁能源投资暴涨 337%，光伏规划产能超出需求 33%，锂电规划产能是需求 1.8 倍，平均建设周期 2.8 年；劳动收入占比持续低于 53% 稳态线，需求端持续疲软。两大核心参数同步突破阈值，产业泡沫持续出清，完美复刻卡莱斯基百年周期规律。
五、学界多元观点：卡莱斯基周期的争议与案例分歧
兼听则明，偏信则暗。依托完善后的定量判据模型，叠加百年历史案例支撑，学界仍存在三类对立观点，分歧核心围绕案例适配性展开：
1.正方（内生周期派，依托多轮危机案例支撑）
1929 大萧条、2008 次贷、70 年代化工泡沫、当前新能源调整，全部满足卡莱斯基框架下投资滞后与分配失衡这两个内生条件，外部冲击只是加速引爆的导火索。杨健教授通过案例校准的稳态阈值具备普遍解释力，2026 年市场调整是内生泡沫自然出清，宏观风控优先监控投资滞后期、劳动收入份额两大先行指标。
2.反方（外生冲击派，强调特殊案例例外）
卡莱斯基原生模型仅适用于早期工业经济体，当代全球化、地缘冲突、央行强力干预大幅改变周期逻辑；1997 亚洲金融危机、2020 疫情暴跌均由外部突发冲击主导，无法单纯用投资、分配内生机制解释，仅依靠卡莱斯基历史案例会低估黑天鹅风险，不能单独作为风控依据。
3.折中实操派（金融机构主流，案例融合框架）
以卡莱斯基内生机制 + 百年历史案例为底层趋势判断工具，使用杨氏阈值识别泡沫累积阶段；同时纳入地缘、货币政策、跨境资本外生变量修正拐点，做到 “案例定长期周期、外生变量修正短期拐点”，是 2026 年宏观风险研判的最优思路。
六、2027 年资产配置启示：基于卡莱斯基案例与稳态阈值的避险逻辑
结合卡莱斯基百年来的多轮周期案例与本文的数理临界阈值，可提出四条可落地的实操资产配置思路：
1.规避产能泡沫赛道（对标 1973 化工、2008 地产案例）
2021—2023 年集中扩产、建设周期超 2.5 年的光伏、储能、基础化工，产能泡沫尚未出清，中长期利润持续承压，降低资产敞口。
2.规避分配失衡下可选消费（对标 1929 大萧条前置消费特征）
全球劳动收入份额持续低于稳态阈值，耐用品、可选消费需求长期疲软，应规避出口导向型消费品企业。
3.警惕政策干预催生长尾风险（对标日本 90 年代地产案例）
多国持续补贴与地方债务托底人为拉长低效产能出清时间；超长高利率则放大新兴市场外债与高杠杆主体的偿付压力，警惕其连锁违约风险。
4.锚定两大预警指标，复刻历史周期预判逻辑
以投资平均滞后期 2.5 年、全球劳动收入占比 53% 为泡沫临界线，指标突破即参照 1929、2008 危机案例提前压降高风险资产。
结语
卡莱斯基早在 20 世纪 30 年代就依靠波兰工业、美国宏观真实案例，证明经济繁荣与萧条是资本主义市场经济内生循环；但长达五十年，学界只能定性描述案例，无法定量界定风险临界点。杨健教授借助非线性动力学求解模型稳态区间，把卡莱斯基的案例经验升级为可量化预判工具。
梳理百年完整周期案例可以清晰看到：1929 大萧条、70 年代化工危机、日本地产泡沫、2008 次贷、当前新能源调整，底层逻辑高度统一。即投资时滞催生产能泡沫、收入分配失衡压制有效需求、政策干预放大波动。当前全球经济正处于多重泡沫长尾出清周期，对照卡莱斯基所归纳的历史周期案例、跟踪两大核心临界指标，才能跳出 “黑天鹅突发事件” 的浅层解读，精准预判全球经济与市场风险。
参考文献
[1] Kalecki M. Theory of Economic Dynamics: An Essay on the Cyclical Mechanism of Capitalist Economy[M]. London: George Allen & Unwin, 1954.
[2] 凯恩斯. 就业、利息和货币通论[M]. 高鸿业, 译. 北京: 商务印书馆, 1999.
[3] Minsky H P. Stabilizing an Unstable Economy[M]. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1986.
[4] 刘鹤 主编. 两次全球大危机的比较研究[M]. 北京: 中国经济出版社, 2013.
[5] 杨健, 范希文. 卡莱斯基商业循环模型的稳定性研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 1988(8): 23-26.
[6] International Energy Agency. Wor
348 Blog Posts To Learn About Psychology
Let's learn about Psychology via these 348 free blog posts. They are ordered by HackerNoon reader engagement data. Visit the Learn Repo or LearnRepo.com to find the most read blog posts about any technology.
Groom your mind to be your greatest asset; All Great Inventions starts from here
1. Understanding The Dunning-Kruger Effect
The Dunning–Kruger effect is the cognitive bias where people overestimate their ability or believe that they are smarter than they are.
2. There Is No Job Security in IT: Here Are My Three Suggestions to Cope With That
Today, I saw another wave of layoffs happening in the IT industry. In IT, there is no job security. Here are my three suggestions for coping with that.
3. What I Learned About Human Psychology From the CIA
What CIA figured out about human nature that we can apply to our everyday life. What motivates us, how most people function, how to get what we want and more.
4. Ads just work, no matter what you think.
We’re surrounded by advertising. Every single day, no matter where we are,<strong> </strong>thousands of auditive & visual stimuli are<strong> force-fed to our brains</strong>.
5. The Matthew Principle of Accumulated Advantage and How the Poor Get Poorer
The Matthew Effect or Matthew Principle of accumulated advantage, is sometimes summarized by the adage "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer".
6. How to Apply Psychology Of Colors In Marketing to Your Brand
This story is about how color is utilized in publicizing and marketing to summon enthusiastic responses. You can use this information to apply to your brand.
7. Cognitive Dissonance Theory and How it Impacts US
Cognitive dissonance is a psychology theory about how we strive to make sense about conflicting cognitions and behaviours.
8. What Personality Traits Lead to White Hat, Gray Hat and Black Hat Hackers? [STUDY]
Inside the mind of a hacker
9. The Art of Overthinking: Why You're a Genius at Creating Problems That Don't Exist
Thinking so much it’s holding you back? Uncover the hidden motives behind your mental chaos, Master the Mind Wizard's Stopwatch Formula, delve into the unexpect
10. Mind Control: How to Influence and Persuade
Do you ever wish you could get what you want? How to convince investors that you have the right business ideas? Trying to get people to come to your event or party, but no one is RSVP-ing? Or, do you wonder how to prevent yourself from getting scammed by salespeople?
11. Practical Exercises for Overcoming Limiting Beliefs
Overcome limiting beliefs by recontextualising them in your mind, writing down the old ones to create new ones and practising both meditation and embodiment
12. Don't Be Scared Of Indeterminacy
Hello, people! I'm an IT analyst from Russia, and I want to make the world around me better. Last time I worked for the biggest Russian energy company as a business analyst, and during my work, I noticed that it is unnecessary to be good at making the final result even if you are a really good professional in your field.
13. Lessons on Human Connection from the Hedgehog's Dilemma
The Hedgehog's Dilemma & Human Connection
14. Four Possible Ways to React to Other People's Happiness or Misery
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Tech layoffs November update: Job cuts hit workers at Amazon, Angi, Block, Canva, and Squarespace
Layoffs aren’t fun any time of year, but they can be especially hard when they come just before the holidays, raising anxieties about the future during what should be a peaceful and hopeful time of year.
Unfortunately, workers at several big-name tech companies continue to lose their jobs in the lead-up to the holiday season.
Those companies include Amazon, Angi, Block, Canva, and Squarespace, and represent just the latest round of layoffs in the tech industry—which has already been hit hard by workforce reductions this year. Here’s what you need to know.
Amazon discloses yet more layoffs
This week, Amazon filed a Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notice (WARN) with Washington state. According to the notice, the Seattle e-commerce giant will be laying off 95 employees based in the state—or, as Amazon put it in the notice, “approximately 95 employees will be separated from employment with Amazon.”
The notice goes on to list several roles that will be affected, including managers, software developers, engineers, and more.
Amazon has laid off more than 30,000 employees over the past year.
The WARN layoffs are part of a round that was previously reported, with impacted workers notified in October.
“We’ve adjusted parts of our Stores business because we believe this structure will better enable us to deliver on our priorities,” an Amazon spokesperson said at the time. “As part of these changes, we’ve made the difficult decision to eliminate a small number of roles, and we’re committed to supporting affected employees through their transition.”
Angi axes 300 positions
Next up is Angi Inc., which runs the popular home services website Angi (formerly known as Angi’s List), where people can go to find contractors.
In a Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed on November 3, the company announced its most recent Q3 2026 results. Revenue declined 9% year over year.
But that isn’t the only thing declining at the company. In that same filing, Angi announced that it was reducing its global workforce by approximately 300 roles. Angi said the layoffs are designed “to increase focus and organizational velocity.”
As for the positions being eliminated, Angi said the jobs affected were “mostly in middle management and support functions.”
Block cuts more jobs
Earlier this year, Jack Dorsey’s payments company Block Inc. made headlines for openly eliminating 4,000 employees in an AI push.
And Block reportedly announced even more layoffs this week. The layoffs reportedly came one day after Block reported its Q3 results, which saw the company increase its gross profit forecast for the year.
But unlike the firm figure earlier this year, Block has not publicly said how many employees it will let go this time.
The job cuts are expected to affect workers in Cash App’s and Square’s Customer Ops, Learning & Content Operations, and Risk Ops teams.
Canva announced that 22% of its staff will be laid off or relocated
On November 3, the design software giant Canva announced “significant changes” to how the company is organized. These changes will see 22% of its staff, or 1,271 individuals, either relocated or let go.
“For some people, this will mean changes to their roles or being asked to relocate to centralised hubs,” the company’s CEO, Melanie Perkins, wrote in a blog post. “Sadly, it will also mean saying goodbye to teammates and friends who have helped build Canva into what it is today.”
Canva is one of the companies that industry watchers fear could be most disrupted by AI as users turn away from old-school design tools to simply telling chatbots what to design.
“To set ourselves up for the next decade, we need to refound Canva, getting back to our roots of small, empowered teams with the freedom to make decisions, take ownership and focus on what matters most for our community,” Perkins said. “It also means making some of the hardest decisions we’ve ever faced, including saying goodbye to people who have helped make Canva what it is today.”
Squarespace is laying off around 300 employees
Finally, on Monday, website builder platform Squarespace confirmed it would lay off about 300 employees, or roughly 19% of its 1,800-strong workforce, the Verge reported.
Like Canva, Squarespace also operates in a market—website development—which many theorize could be greatly disrupted by AI as people turn to the technology to build and develop websites for them.
Confirming the layoffs, a Squarespace spokesperson said, “The changes are intended to simplify how we operate, sharpen our priorities and enable the company to move faster as we position Squarespace for its next phase of growth.”
Tech has been hit hard by layoffs in 2026
According to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, through October 2026, U.S. industries have announced 617,189 job cuts. That’s well below the 1,099,500 jobs the same industries cut by the same time last year.
However, when it comes to tech, things are not so rosy.
Challenger states that despite October tech job cuts of 5,576 being the sector’s “lowest monthly total of the year,” for the year as a whole, the tech industry has led layoff announcements, with 171,501 positions lost. That’s 21% more than the same period a year earlier.
That number is set to increase even more once these November job cuts are include
What ‘Woke 3.0’ could mean for the workplace
In the aftermath of the Democrats sweeping the midterms, the internet has anointed this moment as “Woke 3.0”: an extension of the terminology people have used to describe the political and cultural movement that took hold during the pandemic, particularly after George Floyd’s murder.
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez recently referenced this shift during a widely discussed interview in which she appeared to distance herself from that brand of progressivism. (As she put it: “Woke 1 was crazy.”)
On social media this week, the discourse around Woke 3.0 has taken the form of quips about pronouns and anti-AI rhetoric. But this discussion, unserious though it may be, captures how the outcome of the election could have real implications for diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts in the workplace.
Back in 2020, it seemed like corporate America was finally taking DEI seriously. Some of the biggest tech employers in the country—among them Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta—didn’t just speak out about the racial reckoning, but also backed up those commitments with hundreds of millions of dollars. Many companies hired chief diversity officers for the first time and, at least on the surface, appeared to make real investments in DEI talent.
It didn’t take long for that to change—first quietly, then more publicly as the Trump administration set its sights on the DEI movement and the Supreme Court struck down affirmative action. As the public outcry over racial injustice faded, companies started to divest from DEI programs.
In retrospect, it seems obvious that some companies merely paid lip service to diversity efforts; as Fast Company has reported, many employers were so hasty in their attempts to publicly support DEI that they didn’t ensure there was enough structural support for those initiatives, or any real way of measuring progress.
When the climate shifted, it was relatively easy for some of them to deprioritize those efforts. Many DEI leaders also found themselves burned out and tired of constantly agitating for change in the face of so much resistance.
So what could the next era—Woke 3.0, to borrow a phrase—mean for DEI in the workplace?
Some of the Trump administration’s anti-DEI actions simply cannot be reversed overnight, or at all until the White House changes hands. Trump’s executive orders have slashed DEI programs across the federal government and eliminated affirmative action requirements for any number of employers who are federal contractors.
Since the start of his second term, Trump has taken steps to compromise the authority and independence of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, whose mission is to enforce anti-discrimination laws. With Andrea Lucas at the helm, the agency has focused intensely on snuffing out DEI programs, targeting private sector companies like Nike over their diversity efforts, and pushing to scrap EEO-1 data collection, which has required most employers to provide demographic data on their workforce for six decades.
It could take years to unwind the damage. That aside, it’s not clear how much of an appetite employers currently have for DEI work.
As diversity experts and advocates have previously told Fast Company, there are plenty of companies that never stopped doing this work, even if they didn’t talk about it openly; some of them renamed those efforts, opting for terms like “belonging.” But there are other companies for which this is likely no longer a priority—if it ever was.
With so many companies now fixated on artificial intelligence and what that will mean for their workforce, it’s hard to imagine there will be a broad, renewed commitment to DEI across corporate America. When companies conduct layoffs, as so many employers have been doing, HR and DEI roles are often the first to go. The AI boom may simply present yet another hurdle for the DEI practitioners who have had to fight to be taken seriously all along.
Edge AI Daily 早报（11月7日）
（本文作者为 Edge AI Daily，钛媒体经授权发布）
硅谷前沿：
1.财务“反常识”：2026年前九个月营收332.4亿美元（同比增1206%），GAAP净亏损1040亿美元，其中943亿美元源自可转债等金融工具公允价值变动，属随估值上升产生的“纸面亏损”；剔除后调整后净收入56亿美元（上年同期为亏损29亿），上半年经营性现金流首次转正至39亿美元，核心经营质量在改善而非失血。
2.IPO定价与市场影响：11月初递交修订S-1，估值区间1.5万亿至2万亿美元，较一周前预期下调约5000亿，反映科技股抛售与资本成本上升下投资者转向现金流折现；拟最多募资1000亿美元（超SpaceX约857亿纪录），代码ANT拟登纳斯达克。其定价将成为AI产业链锚点，牵动亚马逊、Alphabet、微软的股权与可转债重估，并影响OpenAI后续IPO窗口。
3.增长与风险：已签约8954亿美元算力采购与租赁承诺（约为2025年营收195倍），其中698亿美元未来12个月到期；净收入留存率约900%（优质SaaS通常120%至130%），“每美元算力带来收入”由2025年一季度的0.40美元升至2026年二季度的2.08美元。主要风险为承诺到期节奏、近半收入集中于三大云市场、以及智能体高客单价叙事能否兑现。
1.融资重置：OpenAI完成约110亿美元首期交割，投前估值1.25万亿美元，低于最初向投资者开出的1.4万亿美元目标，另据报融资总额由拟定的300亿美元缩减至约200亿美元，部分战略锚定买家在AI板块抛售中撤资或下调认购额度，定价权由一级市场转向二级市场。
2.市场因果：11月5日纳斯达克跌5.52%、标普500跌4.36%，创2025年4月以来最差单日表现，约2.5万亿美元市值蒸发；其背景是中期选举民主党赢下得州、俄亥俄州等数据中心核心州，数据中心监管收紧预期升温，令AI算力与数据中心相关股承压，二级市场重定价随后传导至OpenAI的一级市场估值。
3.估值与现金流：1.25万亿美元估值隐含约25倍市销率（按约500亿美元年化营收口径），公司2030年收入指引据报超2800亿美元；但2030年算力支出目标约6000亿美元，投资者文件显示2026至2030年累计自由现金流缺口约2780亿美元，本轮融资被定位为"过桥融资"，据传最早2027年上半年上市以对接更大资金池。
1.谷歌宣布斥资170亿美元在怀俄明州夏延建设其首个数据中心，项目改由全资子公司Jupiter Star Holdings持有，代号由Crusoe时期的“Project Jade”更名为“Project Tembo”，原开发商Crusoe Energy已被挤出局，县政府记录确认其退出谈判。
2.该项目总供电达2.7吉瓦（约590兆瓦来自电网连接、约2.1吉瓦来自本地第三方签约资源），Black Hills协议配套于2027至2029年投资18亿美元建564兆瓦发电容量，预计2028年初投运；行业趋势显示超大规模云厂商正从被动电力消费者转为能源结构设计者，谷歌不持有发电资产却通过零售合同、成本承担与3.99亿美元可退还预付款锁定电力，电力可得性取代资本成为AI扩张首要约束。
3.AI竞赛正从算法转向基础设施竞赛：高盛2026年9月预计美国五大云厂商AI基建支出2027年达约1.2万亿美元，2026年合并资本开支预计超6000亿美元、同比增长36%且约75%投向AI；执行纪律与电力采购能力成为新护城河，第三方开发商生态位收窄；Alphabet股价报286.21美元、涨1.29%，仍远低于334.05美元的50日均价，市场对其资本开支“变重”存疑。
1.【监管与政治】2026年11月3日美国中期选举，全美10州约41项数据中心相关公投中40项通过限制开发；民主党翻蓝得州、俄亥俄、佐治亚等州长席位，新州长均将收紧数据中心监管写入竞选纲领；而得州一州就占美国2030年前规划数据中心产能约四分之一，AI基建扩张首次遭遇系统性政治约束。
2.【资本与并购】2026年11月2日Marvell宣布以全股票交易收购光器件厂商Lumentum，隐含企业价值约1150亿美元，合并后Marvell股东持股约67%，预计2028年上半年完成，底层逻辑是AI集群由铜互联转向光互联；与应用层裁员潮并存：Canva裁员22%（约1200人）、Squarespace裁员19%（约300人），2026年科技行业裁员超20万人，呈“基础设施越建越贵、应用层越裁越狠”格局。
3.【企业应对与叙事转折】面对抵制，OpenAI计划将“数据中心”改名为“AI算力园区”并筹备“社区协议”，谷歌Project Suncatcher探索太空数据中心；文章认为AI增长叙事正从“技术能不能”转向“社会让不让”，监管从邻避运动变为新的议价桌，后续需盯2027年1月各州立法会议、ERCOT（得州电网）审计时间表及国会监督听证会。
1.微软停止从甲骨文租用AI算力并拒绝续约（彭博2026年11月6日报道）：症结在于甲骨文公有云未获FedRAMP认证（AWS、谷歌云已达标），超30亿美元租赁协议告吹，甲骨文不愿承担改造支出；甲骨文否认报道细节，称双方合作仍正常推进。
2.微软自建底气来自业绩：FY27Q1（截至2026年9月30日）Azure营收首次以美元披露，达331.65亿美元、同比增48%，商业剩余履约义务（RPO）同比增73%至6770亿美元；2026日历年资本支出指引1900亿美元（含约250亿美元存储与组件涨价），CFO称年内仍面临产能约束。
3.算力竞赛路径分化：谷歌自2026年10月起每月付SpaceX 9.2亿美元（三年约304亿美元）、OpenAI与甲骨文签3000亿美元协议，均以“租”补产能；微软凭现金流与订单积压转向“自建”求控制权。消息公布后甲骨文股价盘中一度跌近3%、微软基本持平，市场视为战术调整而非基本面转折。
六、OpenAI 发布 GPT-6 Cyber：Firefox 挖出 81 个高危漏洞，Linux 曝光 948 条提权路径
1.模型发布与实战战果：2026年11月5日，OpenAI发布网络安全专用模型GPT-6 Cyber，在一轮研究中发现Firefox 81个此前未知的高危漏洞并已推动Mozilla修复，同时动态复现Linux内核1724个漏洞、为其中948个开发出可运行的提权利用程序（上代仅166个，差距5倍以上），标志AI从"辅助审查"跨入"自主攻防"。
2.基准与能力跃升：在ExploitGym远程漏洞利用基准中，GPT-6 Cyber得分48.5%，较上代GPT-5.6 Cyber的32.1%相对提升约51%；RemoteExploitBench完成95%任务，Web黑盒渗透漏洞召回率40.3%，高于GPT-6 Astra的32.0%，验证其"发现、复现、利用、修复建议"的完整闭环能力。
3.管控与市场格局：该模型网络安全能力评级由High上调至最高档Critical，暂不向公众开放，首批仅通过API和Codex面向严格审核的Daybreak Red客户，并对电力、水处理等关键基础设施操作设限；约一周前Anthropic亦限量发布安全工具Mythos，思科、Palo Alto Networks、CodeRabbit等企业已接入使用，安全能力正从合规成本转为厂商核心卖点。
1.AI工厂瓶颈正从算力转向电力：Agent工作负载将CPU重新推回核心，运营商须在电力预算内最大化“每瓦做功”，能效即容量、容量即收入，成为数据中心竞争的新焦点。
2.2026年11月5日英伟达博客数据：在100兆瓦数据中心同等条件下，单颗Vera CPU同时跑赢“最快x86”和“最节能x86”——每瓦可支撑的Agent数多1.6倍、Agent速度比最节能x86快2倍；Vera采用88核Olympus、176线程、LPDDR5X内存（1.5TB、1.2TB/s、功耗低于30W），并获Perplexity（快1.5倍）、DeepInfra（2.2倍）、Daytona（1000沙箱10.8秒，对x86的88.4秒）等生产级验证。
3.竞争格局重排：数据中心CPU比拼从通用性能转向“每瓦能跑多少Agent”，利好Arm与定制核心，Intel两线承压，AMD以自家（未经第三方验证）的机架级数据反击；Vera目前主要绑定英伟达Rubin与NVLink生态，独立部署灵活性及第三方基准仍待验证。
1.英伟达2026年11月5日官方博客指出，万亿级参数前沿模型、智能体单条轨迹高达300万token的KV cache，以及RAG带来的扩展上下文，正把GPU内存推向极限；HBM供应趋紧、价格上涨的态势短期内难以逆转。
2.数据趋势：从Blackwell Ultra到Vera Rubin，每GPU的HBM容量仅增约3%，但在SemiAnalysis AgentX的DeepSeek V4 Pro负载上，Vera Rubin NVL72每美元吞吐较GB300 NVL72最高高出30倍；此前H200到GB300靠堆容量（容量约翻倍、吞吐最高10倍），此后转向靠架构与软件提升。
3.影响：英伟达以全栈协同设计压缩三类内存占用——权重（NVFP4、NVL72跨72卡分布）、KV cache（Dynamo、CMX分层存储）、RAG（Nemotron Retriever、cuVS）；竞争焦点由“抢更多HBM”转向“更高效使用HBM”，云厂商选型逻辑与存储供应链将随之分化。
1.AI基建瓶颈由芯片转向电力：美国约159吉瓦拟建数据中心产能受阻于审批障碍（部分新任州长支持暂停），电力变压器交期已拉长至128周、发电升压变压器144周，成熟枢纽并网排队达7至10年；IEA测算美国数据中心用电量将从2024年的182.61太瓦时升至2029年的近400太瓦时，五年翻一倍以上，供需缺口持续拉大。
2.麦格理完成两笔退出，将AirTrunk与Aligned Data Centers出售给黑石及MGX等财团，合计套现约560亿美元（其中Aligned以约400亿美元估值易手）；公司仍保留约4.3吉瓦全球数据中心产能，并把赌注从纯托管机柜转向电力与能源基础设施，未来价值更取决于握有多少吉瓦电力合同。
3.地方选票正成为AI基建定价的新变量：NBC出口民调显示56%选民将AI与数据中心列为投票关键因素，反对方广告投入超1亿美元并获胜；风险集中于缺乏电力资产的纯托管运营商，受益者则是握有电力资产、能打包“电、地、许可”的基础设施投资者，以及政治风险较低、可承接美国外溢需求的地区（如澳大利亚）。
1.持仓变动：Alphabet于2026年三季度13F新建高通约300万股，季末市值约5.48亿美元，同时清空GitLab、Spero Therapeutics、Autolus Therapeutics三笔持仓，一进三退构成仓位再平衡。
2.建仓逻辑：高通的端侧AI布局（骁龙峰会定义以个人AI代理为中心）契合AI算力从云端下沉至终端的趋势；背景是Alphabet三季度营收1276亿美元（同比增25%）、自由现金流负90.7亿美元、长期债务由216亿升至1251亿美元，资金由软件与生物药转向端侧芯片。
3.清仓逻辑与提示：GitLab股价较历史高点跌约四分之三，高增长软件股估值倍数下移；Autolus等生物科技公司兑现周期长、不确定性高。13F仅披露美股多头且延迟45天，此次调整属战术性微调，而非对高通的全面押注。
国内进展：
1.外贸总量创新高、进口端异动：据2026年10月19日广东省新闻发布会披露，前三季度深圳全市进出口4.65万亿元、同比增38.8%，规模超上年全年并创历史新高，居内地城市首位；其中出口2.41万亿元增18.5%，进口2.24万亿元增70.1%，进口增速接近出口的四倍，显示其正强化为AI硬件供应链的集散与调度中枢。
2.AI零部件成核心引擎：集成电路等人工智能相关零部件进出口规模居全国首位，贡献全市超六成外贸增量；3D打印机、数字照相机等优势产品出口合计增46.5%，占全国同类产品出口比重达八成以上，产业动能高度集中于AI硬件与智能设备赛道。
3.主体与市场双多元：全市有进出口记录企业突破7万家，民营企业进出口增49.9%、规模占比超七成、贡献近九成增量；贸易伙伴达240多个且前十大均为两位数增长，作为2026年APEC领导人非正式会议举
From Pilots To Payoff: The Top IT Priorities Every Executive Should Accomplish Before Year-End
100,000 polled voters delivered a midterm verdict on Trump’s economy. Here are 4 takeaways
President Donald Trump was publicly humbled by inflation in the midterm elections, as rising prices provoked a blistering set of losses for Republicans in House, Senate and gubernatorial races.
Most voters said that Trump’s own policies had smothered growth and driven costs even higher, according to The AP Voter Poll, a survey of roughly 100,000 midterm voters. The president’s message that the fault lay with his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, didn’t land. Americans saw prices start to climb with Trump’s chaotic rash of tariffs last year, and energy costs spiked after he launched a war with Iran in February.
About two-thirds of voters said Trump’s own policies had fueled inflation. By contrast, only about half of 2022 midterm voters said this about Biden’s policies, according to AP VoteCast.
Voters in states from California to Mississippi were broadly in agreement that Trump’s taxes on foreign imports have done more harm than good.
The election results matched what voters had been telling pollsters for months, but Trump had campaigned with a decidedly deaf ear.
“I’ve done a great job,” Trump said at one of his final midterm rallies in Iowa. “Prices are coming way down.”
Voters have buyer’s remorse with Trump
Democratic victories in Tuesday’s midterms signaled that most voters don’t believe the economy or Trump is working for them.
Consumer prices are up 3.7% over the past 12 months, compared to an inflation rate of 3% when Trump began his second term. The president told reporters on Wednesday that the Iran war “drove the gasoline up a little bit short-term,” but he felt the choice to fight Iran was worth it because of its push for nuclear weapons. “If I had to do it again, I’d have to do it again,” he said.
There is no guarantee that a House and Senate with a Democratic majority can fix an economy pestered by uncomfortably high inflation. Trump and Congress would likely need to work on a bipartisan basis, or simply keep the economy stable enough to allow the Federal Reserve to ratchet down inflation through its setting of interest rates.
But voters did prefer Democrats to the status quo of a president who could govern with little to no congressional pushback from Republicans.
About 9 in 10 voters said the cost of living was a “crucial” or “major” factor in their vote for Congress. And about 6 in 10 of this group backed Democratic candidates in their local House races.
The economy is still growing, but AI is a source of fear instead of hope
The underlying economy is stronger than many Americans think, with the S&P 500 stock index up more than 10% so far this year and the unemployment rate at a healthy 4.2%. Investors greeted the news of Democratic wins as a positive with stocks up on Wednesday.
Still, the major driver of growth has been the buildout of artificial intelligence — a boom that Trump has actively stoked by refusing to codify more aggressive federal oversight.
Voters don’t share Trump’s optimism about AI, which he has renamed “super intelligence” in federal documents.
Instead of buying the arguments that AI would increase productivity and accelerate growth, about 6 in 10 voters said AI will do more to hurt society.
The technology could displace workers as jobs get automated or it could be a financial bubble that if popped could wreak havoc on retirement savings. Despite the anxiety, only about one-quarter of voters said AI was a “crucial” factor.
Wealth isn’t trickling down to the middle class
Tech billionaires such as Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Elon Musk have become frequent guests of Trump, attending state dinners or jetting abroad with the president. But the growing concentration of wealth has been disconcerting for voters.
Nationwide, about 7 in 10 voters said the economy favors wealthy people, while only about 3 in 10 said it’s fair to everyday Americans. The wealth gap has become so extreme that even a majority of voters with a 2025 household income of $300,000 or more in the tech-heavy state of California felt the economy was tilted toward the rich.
Still, a slight majority of voters across the country had a “somewhat” or “very” favorable impression of capitalism, compared to about one-third who “strongly” or “somewhat” favor socialism.
But the election suggested that voters believe the government should use its heft to help reduce the cost of healthcare. About 6 in 10 said they wanted the government to play a “bigger role” in addressing medical expenses. Most voters said Trump’s policies have made healthcare costs worse.
Trump caught in a trap with voters
How voters felt about the overall economy generally depended on the size of their paychecks. While Trump campaigned on stats suggesting record low poverty, the w
Jack Dorsey’s Block is cutting jobs again. Here’s what makes these layoffs different
Jack Dorsey’s fintech company, Block, began a second round of layoffs on Wednesday, months after cutting more than 4,000 jobs in February. The company has not said how many employees are affected at this time.
The cuts hit the Customer Ops, Risk Ops, and Learning & Content Operations teams supporting Cash App, Block’s consumer financial services app, and Square, its tool for sellers. According to Business Insider, those teams will be “reducing the number of roles, changing some responsibilities, and shifting some reporting lines.”
Affected employees are expected to receive a “separation package and transition support, similar to those affected in February 2026.” Block has not detailed the new terms. In February, laid-off employees received 20 weeks or more of severance pay, with the final amount dependent on tenure. Their packages also included equity vested until the end of May, six months of healthcare coverage, their company-issued work devices, and an extra $5,000.
Block did not respond to Fast Company’s request for comment as of publication.
The layoffs came one day after Block reported its third-quarter results on Tuesday. The company said it raised its 2026 gross profit forecast to $12.63 billion, up from its initial $12.51 billion estimate. It also projected a fourth-quarter gross profit of $3.32 billion.
Block hasn’t explained what drove this round of layoffs. Earlier this year, Dorsey announced that the February layoffs were not because of financial issues, but because of “intelligence tools,” like AI.
“A significantly smaller team, using the tools we’re building, can do more and do it better,” Dorsey wrote on X then. “Intelligence tool capabilities are compounding faster every week.”
“We see an opportunity to move faster with smaller, highly talented teams using AI to automate more work,” Block CFO Amrita Ahuja said.
Block is also continuing to build its own AI products. The company recently released Dessa, a speech-to-speech AI voice model trained on the recording of real human conversations.
We believe voice is the most natural way to interact with intelligence, so we created Dessa, the most authentic full-duplex speech model ever built. Talking with it feels like talking with a person…full of emotion, nuance, pauses, and a natural cadence. https://t.co/r0qFLdvd6c
— jack (@jack) October 23, 2026
Apple is slashing AI budgets—the latest company to do so
Tokenmaxxing is on the way out, even as some of the biggest players in the tech industry are urging their employees to use AI as much as possible. A new Bloomberg report reveals that Apple is cutting employee budgets for AI token usage while remaining just as committed to deploying AI to boost efficiency.
Apple has already reduced the daily spending limit from $300 to $200 for certain engineers, according to Bloomberg, but the company reportedly plans to cut that down even more. Sources told Bloomberg that the daily cap could drop as low as $100 for some engineering teams. In many other departments, daily AI spending is already capped at $100; now Apple is considering reducing the limit to $25 for certain teams.
The spending limit is measured in tokens, which are units of AI usage that represent fragments of text or data processed by AI systems.
This move comes as Apple continues pressing its engineers and other employees to use AI more in day-to-day operations. But it also reflects a larger trend rippling across the tech industry, as companies struggle to justify their outsize spending on artificial intelligence.
After pushing their employees to adopt AI, many tech employers seem to be grappling with the fact that those investments have not yielded the productivity gains that they anticipated.
According to Bloomberg, some Apple employees believed many people weren’t making use of the $300 limit and that it was higher than needed. But other employees seemed to view it as a sign that Apple is looking to reduce costs—and that the company could resort to layoffs.
Bloomberg reports that Apple is already taking steps to streamline its operations in the interest of maximizing efficiency, and recently appointed CEO John Ternus is reportedly already advocating for reducing layers of management (something that Amazon has also sought to do over the last year).
There are plenty of signs tech companies are tightening their belts, even as they continue to prioritize AI adoption across their workforce. Uber exhausted its annual AI budget in a matter of months, leading the company to cap monthly spending at $1,500 for each AI coding tool. Companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla have all imposed token limits on their employees.
Beyond AI spend, however, the fear of layoffs looms large across the tech industry.
A steady stream of employers have trimmed head count in the last year due to AI investments, either to offset exorbitant AI spending or because AI has enabled them to cut back on certain jobs. A number of companies, including Microsoft, have given their workers the option of taking a voluntary buyout, presumably to stave off job losses or avoid the negative attention associated with major layoffs.
As Fast Company reported this week, some workers have even started to worry about AI being used to select employees for layoffs as companies shed jobs and reshape their workforce. In other words, it seems companies are continuing to demand more of their employees, but with less support—human or otherwise.
The Blue Tsunami Swept Doctors and Scientists Into Office
[职场话题] 为什么这里这么多法盲觉得无固定期限被开就是 2n 的赔偿？
2. 再退一步讲，就算公司同等条件把你干了，但是现实里本来就基本上都是违法裁员，普通合同只要你愿意耗也是一样有望拿 2n 的，合同类型在这里面起不到啥额外加成
3. 所以综上所述，你能不能拿到 2n 基本和你愿不愿意耗着不找工作去仲裁打官司有关系，和其他几乎没关系~
Epic重组团队全面押注AI，争夺“空间智能”时代的底层协议权
（本文作者为 塔猴科技，钛媒体经授权发布）
文 | 塔猴科技
“不要再手写代码了。”近日，全球游戏引擎巨头Epic Games创始人Tim Sweeney在社交平台抛出这一激进宣言，高调宣布公司正在推进重大战略重组，以实现“全面AI加速”。马斯克随后第一时间转发该推文，并留下意味深长的背书：“确实如此（True）。”
这可能是全球游戏工业近十年来最剧烈的一次底层范式转移。数据显示，通过深度绑定大模型，Epic已将虚幻引擎（Unreal Engine）的原型验证速度拉升了5倍（Three.js项目更是高达10倍），AI不仅接管了过去占开发70%时间的机械编码工作，更开始直接攻克剩余30%的硬核架构难题。当AI从外围的图文生成插件，正式挺进复杂软件工程与3D交互世界的底层管线，传统游戏工业的护城河与商业牌桌，正在被彻底掀翻。
从“外挂插件”到引擎核心的代差跨越
如果将时间轴拨回两年前，游戏行业对AI的应用还停留在原画生成、NPC对话等外围降本环节；而如今，Epic的战略转向证明，AI已经刺入游戏工业最核心的基建层——引擎研发与底层技术体系。
Epic开发执行副总裁Marcus Wassmer证实，除了通过“氛围编程（Vibe Coding）”重构启动器以拉升人效外，AI已全面渗透进《堡垒之夜》编辑器（UEFN）与下一代虚幻引擎（UE6）的核心开发。借助Claude与Codex，研发团队不仅一举攻克了困扰引擎长达十年的陈年Bug，还实现了对PC端硬件与驱动崩溃隐患的自动化监测。
梳理今年以来的技术演进脉络，一条清晰的“大模型入驻3D引擎”时间线已然成型：
- 今年6月： Epic在UE 5.8版本中正式引入原生模型上下文协议（MCP），将Claude、Gemini等大模型直接嵌入引擎工作流；
- 今年9月： OpenAI发布原生集成虚幻引擎的GPT-6 Astra，叠加同期Claude Opus 5.5的能力跃升，彻底打通了大模型读写3D交互环境的底层接口。
底层基建的代差跨越，迅速在商业端释放出惊人的生态弹性。以Epic与迪士尼的生态合作为例，今年迪士尼将《星球大战》超级IP开放给《堡垒之夜》独立开发者后，凭借AI加持的敏捷开发工具链，海量定制玩法在72小时内便席卷了近800万玩家；双方甚至顺势打通了“线下迪士尼乐园游玩+线上《堡垒之夜》做任务”的数实融合闭环。
尽管双方联合研发的单款旗舰大作仍面临延期考验，暴露出AI尚无法完全替代超大型项目的复杂协同，但前期验证周期的剧烈压缩，无疑已为超级IP的商业化变现打开了全新的资本闸门。
8%预算膨胀率下的供给侧自救
作为行业既得利益者的Epic，为何要在此时如此激进地革自己的命？
答案藏在全行业亟待重算的一笔残酷经济账里。长期以来，传统3A游戏的商业模式正深陷致命的“成本螺旋”。波士顿咨询公司（BCG）调研数据显示，PC及主机端3A游戏的开发预算年均增长率，已从早期的6%陡峭攀升至目前的8%，动辄耗资数亿美元、最终回收仅几千万美元的财务惨剧在好莱坞与硅谷频发。
与研发Capex（资本开支）失控形成鲜明对比的，是全球游戏存量市场的增长见顶。据市场研究机构Newzoo最新预测，2026年全球游戏市场规模预计达2139亿美元，同比增速放缓至6.1%，而全球玩家基数的增长率更是跌至3.2%的低位。
一边是陡峭攀升的硬性研发成本，另一边是日趋平缓的营收大盘，日益扩大的“剪刀差”正将传统高投入、高风险的大作研发模式推向悬崖边缘。
因此，游戏巨头加码AI绝非附庸风雅的技术尝鲜，而是一场被财务压力倒逼的供给侧自救。AI最核心的财务价值，在于彻底改写了研发的试错成本曲线。AI将以往耗时数月的玩法验证压缩5至10倍，不仅让大厂得以果断砍掉前期沉没成本、将弹药聚焦于高确定性项目，更在客观上抹平了底层工程门槛，让“精英小团队+大模型”第一次具备了在局部战场抗衡传统千人研发大厂的成本优势。
人效撕裂与“产能通胀”的反噬
然而，底层生产力的解放并未直接转化为全行业的利润红利。当技术激进主义撞上复杂的商业现实，游戏产业正陷入转型期的剧烈阵痛与多维博弈。
首先是管理层人效诉求与一线从业者生存境遇的剧烈撕裂。 2026年GDC（游戏开发者大会）最新调查报告揭示了一个极其割裂的行业现状：尽管目前已有36%的从业者在日常工作中使用AI（其中代码辅助占比高达47%），但仍有高达52%的受访者认为AI正在给行业带来负面冲击。在过去两年全行业裁员潮的余波下，高管们向AI要利润、要人效的激进战略，正在引发一线程序员与美术师对沦为“算法替代品”的强烈戒备与组织对抗。
其次，是“生产端降本”反向诱发的“流通与合规端增本”。 制作门槛的骤降直接引爆了供给端的产能过剩，目前Steam平台年发售游戏数量已突破2.2万款大关，极度的内容通胀与同质化随之而来。值得注意的是，当生产成本被击穿后，买量获客、品质筛选的发行壁垒反而被推至历史新高。
与此同时，监管与合规的“拦路虎”正在迅速收紧。叠加Steam平台对AI生成内容的强制披露规定，以及美国演员工会（SAG-AFTRA）针对数字分身、AI语音制定的严苛补偿标准，游戏公司在代码端省下的真金白银，正在被版权确权、合规审查与天价宣发费用悄然吞噬。所谓的“新黄金时代”，短期内注定只是少数先锋团队的试金石。
争夺“空间智能”时代的底层协议权
跳出单一公司的成败，站在更宏大的产业周期回望Epic的这场豪赌，这绝非游戏一个赛道的孤立演进，而是整个数字内容工业迈入AI深水区的提前预演。当大模型正式接管核心工作流，三条不可逆的商业法则正在重构产业终局：
第一，B端军备竞赛的焦点，已从“插件工具”转向“底座协议权”。
为什么OpenAI的GPT-6 Astra要耗费重金原生集成虚幻引擎？因为任何游离于核心生产管线之外的AI工具，都随时面临被替换的风险。未来科技巨头的终极博弈，早已不在C端对话框的流量入口，而是争夺工业软件底层的“上下文控制权”。谁能通过原生协议将大模型无缝嵌入实时3D渲染、工业仿真等复杂业务流，直接读写底层数据并调度工具链，谁就能掌握下一代生产力平台的绝对定价权。
第二，产能过剩周期下，商业护城河向“定义与确权”两端迁徙。
当基础编码沦为廉价大宗品，盲目堆砌算力只会制造无法交付的“数字垃圾”。未来的核心壁垒将彻底呈现哑铃型分布：研发前端极度考验“定义问题的能力”（系统架构设计与顶级审美品味）；商业后端则比拼“确权与信任”（数据溯源、版权合规与精品筛选）。
第三，大模型与3D引擎合流，正在构筑“空间智能”新基建。
文本与二维音视频的大模型红利已然触顶，向三维物理法则与实时交互演进是技术发展的必然方向。虚幻引擎提供的现成物理规律与空间逻辑，与大模型的推理能力结合，正成为通用的数字孪生底座。这一变革将彻底外溢至游戏之外——从具身智能训练、自动驾驶仿真到工业数字孪生，所有涉及空间计算的B端产业，都将迎来一场由“自然语言实时驱动3D世界”的效率革命。
那句激进的“不要再手写代码了”，真正宣告终结的并非程序员或创作者的商业价值，而是那个“靠人力堆砌掩盖平庸创意”的旧工业时代。
AI没有带来躺赢的温床，它只是冷酷地抽掉了技术执行的缓冲垫，让所有玩家直接暴露在“产品定义能力”与“商业生态效率”的刺刀见红之中。在这场席卷全球的牌局重构里，企业最大的风险从来不是AI技术本身的不完美；而是当竞争对手已经换上“引擎+大模型”的新一代生产底座时，你还在用旧时代的算盘，去精算那70%早已被时代清零的苦力账。
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Canva reveals major restructuring potentially affecting over a thousand jobs
Canva’s big layoffs say a lot about the AI design landscape
The AI design giant Canva just announced the first-ever major round of layoffs in its 13-year history. As part of the restructuring, 1,271 people—around 22% of the company’s overall staff—will either be laid off, reassigned to new roles, or relocated to the company’s headquarters in Sydney, Australia.
News of the layoffs was announced on November 3 (a perfect day to bury some bad news) in a press release from Canva cofounder and CEO Melanie Perkins. In the note, Perkins explains that the layoffs are part of a larger plan to make Canva’s teams more agile and less siloed, including by folding product, growth, and platform teams into one unit and reducing the number of “subspecialities” at the company.
“I’ve come to the difficult conclusion that small changes won’t be enough,” Perkins’ letter reads. “To set ourselves up for the next decade, we need to refound Canva, getting back to our roots of small, empowered teams with the freedom to make decisions, take ownership, and focus on what matters most for our community.”
While Canva didn’t provide a broader business reason for the layoffs, the restructuring comes at a time when it’s working through some mounting growing pains and questions about the timing of a potential initial public offering (IPO). After spending the last several years going all in on its AI-powered product suite, Canva is now facing the challenge of squaring its business model with an increasingly voracious user base.
Canva’s growth conundrum
In May, Fast Company wrote that design was entering its “frenemies” era.
At the time, Anthropic had just launched Claude Design. The product seemingly came as a surprise to incumbent companies including Adobe and Figma, which had been operating under a multiyear collaboration with Anthropic to integrate Claude into their products, and didn’t expect the AI giant to debut its own design competitor. Meanwhile, Canva told Fast Company that it had actually helped Anthropic develop Claude Design, despite Canva’s own collaboration deal with the company.
For Adobe, Figma, and Canva, working with frontier models offers the advantage of bringing new tools to market faster and benefiting from the sophistication of frontier models. The main downside is that using these frontier models also takes a lot of computing power, and that racks up major costs. As Canva has made a major push—by building its own models and acquiring AI companies—to become an “AI platform” over the last several years, those costs have become a significant problem.
In early August, Canva sent a note to its investors with an update: The company was downgrading its revenue growth forecast for 2026 from 30% to 20%. At the time, Perkins told shareholders that the “average cost of serving an AI task was too high” as the company relied heavily on its partnerships with frontier models to complete users’ requests.
For context, by the end of 2025, Canva had more than 265 million monthly active users and more than 31 million paid users, meaning that some large portion of AI traffic on the site was likely generated by free users. In an August interview with Fortune, Perkins said that users’ demand for new AI features had “significantly exceeded” the company’s expectations, which came with both pros and cons.
“This validated the demand, but also showed us we needed to reduce the cost of completing an AI task to support a broad rollout,” Perkins told the publication. “Rather than broadly rolling out a product before the underlying economics were ready, we decided to slow the rollout while we rebuilt the architecture, reduced unit costs, and strengthened the business model.”
To reduce the intermediary costs that Canva incurs every time an AI task requires a frontier model, Canva has been working on developing first-party tools that can take up some of the work. For example, Perkins told Fortune that, since launching Canva 2.0 in April, the company’s cost-per-task has reduced by 90%. This October, Canva launched another product called Canva Brush, which it said reduced cost-per-task by 46% compared with the previous design agent.
These new features have made improvements, but, based on its downgraded revenue forecast, Canva still has a ways to go before it fully irons out its economic model. The fact that user demand for Canva’s AI tools is outpacing its own capabilities seems to be a bullish sign for AI design at large. Now, Canva needs to figure out how to make the most of the surge—and the company’s first major layoffs could be part of its plan to get back on track.
Canva’s restructuring affects more than 1,200 people. But its severance package is earning praise
Design tech company Canva is doing some major restructuring: The move will impact nearly 1,300 employees, or roughly 22% of its staff. But the company’s also getting attention for how it’s treating the employees who are being let go.
On November 3, CEO Melanie Perkins announced the news in a post on LinkedIn, sharing the letter she sent to all staff laying out a generous severance package that’s being fawned over on social media.
The letter explained that all terminated employees would receive six months of salary, regardless of location. Canva, which is based in Sydney, will also remove the one-year vesting cliff for those who joined the company within the past 12 months, which means even those who came on board recently can walk away with shares in the company.
Former employees will also continue to receive healthcare, plus dedicated career support, résumé help, coaching and interview preparation, plus one year of LinkedIn Premium. Additionally, the company launched a fund to provide $10,000 grants to those looking to start a company or project or their own.
“Whether it’s starting a business or doing something meaningful for their local community, the fund is designed to help get those ideas off the ground,” Perkins explained in the letter.
The company is even allowing all terminated employees to keep their MacBook laptops.
“We’re making significant changes to how we’re organised, which sadly means saying goodbye to many exceptionally talented people who have helped build Canva into what it is today,” Perkins wrote in her LinkedIn post.
She added that the company put in the time and effort to create “an opt-in alumni talent directory” where former employees can learn about work opportunities. Perkins included her email address and asked leaders with any work opportunities to reach out to her directly.
The news comes at a time when Canva is gearing up for a potential IPO following several years of spending on its suite of AI-powered products.
“This is the hardest decision we’ve made in Canva’s history, and we know it will deeply impact many people and their loved ones,” Perkins continued. “While we believe these changes are critical to help set Canva up for the future, Canva would not be the company it is today without their hard work, and we want to do everything we can to help set them up well for their next chapter.”
More often than not, when companies go through major overhauls (like laying off nearly a quarter of their employees), the news is about how those employees may struggle to find employment, or how the company failed to support them.
In today’s era of forever layoffs, companies tend to drop staff with decades of loyalty abruptly over a group Zoom call, and that’s that. But Canva has seemed to take a more humane approach than we’re used to.
Commenters on the CEO’s post were quick to weigh in on how the company is showing other leaders how to handle layoffs gracefully.
“Really impressive, empathetic, transparent, and generous way to communicate what was undoubtedly a very hard decision,” one LinkedIn commenter said. “Especially with what this industry has seen over the past year, this is an example for other organizations on how to do a hard thing right.”
Another added, “Plenty of companies will do layoffs this year. Few will do them like this.”
That’s likely the case, but with all the positive attention surrounding Canva’s approach to restructuring, it’s hard to imagine it won’t inspire at least a few leaders to take note. Or perhaps it will inspire more workers to push for better treatment in the future should they be shown the door.
[问与答] 朋友的公司要招一个跟单， boss 上两天收到了 1000 封求职信息。。。。。
另一个小伙伴的设计公司也裁员了，老板通知吃散伙饭了。
这环境怎么这么恶劣呀？
一文看懂 2026 中国车市：卷死合资不是胜利，「金九银十」已然消失
销量数据每月都发，其中最受关注的无疑是刚刚过去的九月和十月。
这两个月一直是车市最重要的销售旺季，因此也被称为「金九银十」。在这段时间里，厂家往往会集中投放主力车型，推出冲量和返利政策；经销商则会抓住中秋和国庆假期带来的用车需求，加大促销力度。多重因素叠加，汽车销量通常会在这时迎来一波高峰。
但今年秋天，车市显得有些安静。
乘联会公布的最新数据印证了这种体感：今年 10 月全国乘用车零售 169.3 万辆，同比下降 25%；周度走势上，10 月各周日均零售同比跌幅都在 20% 以上。
这样的冷清并不是突然出现的，前两年超长期国债支持的报废更新，加上各省市密集的置换补贴，把原本属于今年甚至明年的购车需求提前释放了相当一部分。如今随着补贴效果逐步放缓，市场进入了政策平稳期。
汽车的价格体系同样经历了一个变化过程。
2023 年春季特斯拉带头降价，东风系跟进政企联合补贴，行业原有的价格标尺被打破。到了 2024 年初，比亚迪打出电比油低的旗号，主流混动轿车下沉至七到十万元区间，行业平均利润率一度回落至 4.5% 左右的低位。
当价格调整从年初延续到深秋，促销每个月都在搞，消费者就不必再特意等待金九银十，传统旺季的吸引力自然也就下降了。
最早感受到变化的是经销商。
今年，新车进销价格倒挂已经不止出现在豪华品牌的展厅里，而是蔓延到了大部分主流品牌。中国汽车流通协会数据显示，上半年全国超半数汽车经销商处于亏损状态，新车销售毛利普遍转负。
现在的问题不再是旺季能卖多少车，而是卖一辆车要亏多少钱。
一位华东地区的 4S 店销售主管在接受《第一财经》采访时坦言，以前全款提车的客户最受欢迎，现在客户提出全款买现车，销售人员反而很为难。厂家指导价早已失守，他们每卖出一辆裸车就要承担两万多元的亏损。
他表示，店里目前只能尽量劝导客户选择长达五年的分期还款方案。在银行高达百分之十以上的「高息高返」政策下，一笔十余万元的车贷能带来上万元佣金，再算上随之捆绑的店内保险返点与综合服务费，门店才能勉强补上卖车产生的差价亏损。
当门店业务重心转向金融服务，经销商原本承担的「蓄水池」作用随之减弱，无力再替车企垫资备库，消费者又在持续降价预期中拉长比价周期，过去依靠旺季集中冲量的玩法越来越难以为继。
卷死合资，并非胜利
渠道的收缩，很快传导到了生产端。就在昨天，沈阳华晨宝马工厂传出人员优化消息。
据量子位 ROBO 报道，这次人员优化涉及约 1800 人，约占华晨宝马总员工的10%。
一位在沈阳工厂流水线工作的 P 岗工人回忆，许多工人口头收到的通知是从 11 月 2 日起等待电话，接到通知的人办理离职，其余人继续上班。
办公室序列的 G 岗员工同样受到影响。一位员工透露，部门里合同即将到期的同事，早在年初就收到三年期满不再续约的提醒，许多人只能提前找工作，其中甚至包括一位 57 岁的资深员工。
一份流出的赔偿方案显示，华晨宝马为这些员工提供了 N+5 的补偿，被裁员工在找到新工作前最长可领取两年失业金。
和北京奔驰去年的 N+11 比起来，宝马的赔偿方案似乎没那么引人瞩目，但不得不说，后者在国内制造业环境里已经算是清流了。
也有人将宝马在德国本土的做法拿来作对比。路透社与德国《商报》早前披露，宝马在德国针对部分白领岗位推出自愿离职方案，最高赔偿金达到 65 万欧元，折合人民币超 480 万元，数千个名额几天内便被申请完毕。
在人员调整这件事上，一些合资品牌靠着此前攒下的家底，还能给员工一份相对体面的离职补偿。相比之下，国内一些把 BBA 当作对手的品牌，做法就没那么透明了，有的甚至频繁通过法务手段处理离职纠纷。
满打满算，合资造车在国内也就走过了四十来年。对不少从业者来说，合资企业不只是一份工作，也意味着更稳定的福利和保障。如果合资品牌在竞争中进一步收缩，这些保障能否延续，也会成为新的问题。
产能利用率下降，只是问题的一面，整个行业赚钱也越来越难。乘联会数据显示，今年前 9 个月，汽车行业收入增长 2.6%，成本却增长 3.8%，利润同比下降 23%，销售利润率降至 3.3%，低于规模以上工业企业 5.68% 的平均水平。
9 月的数据更差。单月利润同比下降 68%，销售利润率进一步降至 1.4%，处于近 4 年来的低位。
利润变薄，车企只能把降本任务一层层传给零部件供应商。
晚点 LatePost 记录了一家核心底盘供应商高管的讲述，这位副总裁坦言，主机厂提出的年降指标已经接近极限，过去按年沟通的降本要求变成了按季度考核。
在一次闭门会议上，车企采购部门问他，能不能把某个连杆部件从铝合金改成双层冲压钢板，这样单件成本就能省下几十元。他当然清楚，材料一换，底盘质感和耐腐蚀性能都可能打折扣。但竞标的压力就摆在那里，完不成降本指标，下一季度的供货份额就可能被竞争对手拿走。
当降本压力落到车身底盘、防撞梁涂层和隔音隔热材料这些隐蔽环节，原本为产品质量留出的余量，也在被一点点压缩。
车越卷越快，消费者越买越慢
供应链不断压缩成本，也与新车研发节奏的变化有关。国内乘用车的研发周期已从过去的 36 个月以上，缩短到一年至一年半。硬件频繁调整，软件持续更新，汽车越来越像消费电子产品，一款车型的生命周期也随之改变。
研发节奏加快的同时，价格也在不断松动。宝马 i7 终端优惠超过了 30 万，奔驰 E 级在多地售价下探至 32 万元，雅阁、威兰达这些车型更是降到了 13 万元落地，自主品牌也在一轮轮改款和促销中不断调整价格。
从豪华品牌到主流家用车，价格都在频繁变化，消费者越来越难判断一辆车到底值多少钱。
同样发生变化的，还有市场上热销的车型。今年秋季，早期走红的 A00 级微型纯电车销量跌幅超过五成。
受成本和空间限制，这类车型很难兼顾驾控与被动安全，市场份额迅速被综合素质更全面的 A0 级与 A 级纯电家用车分走。与此同时，插电混动和增程车型还在不断蚕食传统燃油 SUV 的市场基盘。
价格和产品都在快速变化，消费者的购车心态自然也跟着变了。买车越来越像买手机，刚提车就可能遇到配置更高、价格更低的新款，早买早享受渐渐变成了晚买享折扣，「金九银十」的促销想要打动他们，也就变得越来越难。
车市的天花板，可能比我们想的更低
比起消费者越来越深的观望情绪，车企真正要面对的现实，是国内汽车市场的容量上限。
行业常用千人汽车保有量来判断市场潜力——美国超过 800 辆，欧洲和日本在 500 至 600 辆之间，国内目前约为 260 辆。
单看这个数字，国内市场似乎还有成倍增长的空间。但不同国家的汽车保有量，并不能脱离城市形态和地理条件直接比较。中国人口和经济活动高度集中在胡焕庸线以东，居民又大多住在高密度集合住宅里，与北美低密度郊区的独栋住宅截然不同。
随着全国机动车保有量来到 3.6 亿辆，一线和新一线城市所承受的道路和车位压力也越来越大。
多所交通科研机构的模型显示，受自然条件和城市结构限制，中国千人汽车保有量的合理饱和水平在 300 至 350 辆之间。如果按这个区间计算，国内车市距离增长上限已经不远。
依靠新增需求扩张的模式正在走向终点，车企不得不转向存量争夺，一家工厂想要提高产量，往往就要从竞争对手手中抢走市场。这种从增量竞争转向存量竞争的过程，十年前的中国智能手机行业已经经历过。
2014 年前后，国内手机市场活跃着数十个品牌，除了华为和小米，酷派、金立、魅族、锤子等厂商也都参与其中。随着芯片、屏幕等供应链日趋标准化，各品牌陷入价格和配置内卷。大批腰部品牌退场后，市场才形成如今的华米 OV 与苹果并存的格局。
等到硬件足以满足日常需求，创新又逐渐转向机身材质、屏幕折痕和影像风格等细节，消费者的换机周期也从早期的一年延长到三年以上。
智能手机行业的变化，对今天的智能汽车很有参照意义。主流芯片、大屏和辅助驾驶逐渐成为标配，车企越来越依赖配置堆叠，用户对参数却在慢慢脱敏，换车热情也随之下降。
如果再把时间往前拉一百年，美国汽车工业也留下过相似的经验。
20 世纪 20 年代，福特通过流水线作业，将 T 型车售价从 800 多美元降至 260 美元左右，由此拉开了持续十余年的价格战。那场竞争加上随后到来的大萧条，让上百家中小车企相继消失，最终形成了底特律三大巨头的格局。
把这些经验放回今年的中国车市，金九银十的平淡也就不显得偶然了。
市场空间接近承载上限，产品更新越来越像消费电子，竞争则转向成本、现金流和长期工程能力。
传统旺季逐渐淡去，中国汽车工业正在告别依靠营销和资本快速扩张的阶段。接下来的竞争不会更轻松，决定胜负的因素，已经和过去不太一样了。
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